Trillium News
December 13, 2022

November’s Report Points to Cooling Inflation…Is the Market Over-Reacting?

November’s Report Points to Cooling Inflation…Is the Market Over-Reacting?November’s Report Points to Cooling Inflation…Is the Market Over-Reacting?

Dear U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator and Members of Congress,

Trillium Chief Economist Cheryl Smith weighs in how November’s milder than expected CPI readings may impact upcoming monetary policy decisions.

November’s inflation report brought some welcome news related to inflation, with a slightly milder than expected rise in headline CPI month-over-month of 0.1%, and Core CPI of 0.2%. This continues a four-month trend of steady or improving monthly reports and, we believe, makes it very likely that the Fed will limit the next rate hike to 0.5%.

Both stock and bond markets are reacting ecstatically; this reaction seems overzealous. Four months is a very short time frame for the Fed to draw the conclusion that the inflation problem is resolved.  In addition, the substantial amount of monetary tightening already in place raises the risks of recession. The decline in shelter prices that contributed to this lower inflation reading is reflective of the slowing demand for houses and for rentals in the face of rising interest rates.  

Based on our current work, we believe monetary policy will remain restrictive for some time.

November’s inflation report brought some welcome news related to inflation, with a slightly milder than expected rise in headline CPI month-over-month of 0.1%, and Core CPI of 0.2%. This continues a four-month trend of steady or improving monthly reports and, we believe, makes it very likely that the Fed will limit the next rate hike to 0.5%.

Both stock and bond markets are reacting ecstatically; this reaction seems overzealous. Four months is a very short time frame for the Fed to draw the conclusion that the inflation problem is resolved.  In addition, the substantial amount of monetary tightening already in place raises the risks of recession. The decline in shelter prices that contributed to this lower inflation reading is reflective of the slowing demand for houses and for rentals in the face of rising interest rates.  

Based on our current work, we believe monetary policy will remain restrictive for some time.

November’s inflation report brought some welcome news related to inflation, with a slightly milder than expected rise in headline CPI month-over-month of 0.1%, and Core CPI of 0.2%. This continues a four-month trend of steady or improving monthly reports and, we believe, makes it very likely that the Fed will limit the next rate hike to 0.5%.

Both stock and bond markets are reacting ecstatically; this reaction seems overzealous. Four months is a very short time frame for the Fed to draw the conclusion that the inflation problem is resolved.  In addition, the substantial amount of monetary tightening already in place raises the risks of recession. The decline in shelter prices that contributed to this lower inflation reading is reflective of the slowing demand for houses and for rentals in the face of rising interest rates.  

Based on our current work, we believe monetary policy will remain restrictive for some time.

Trillium's Approach to Investing in Energy and Power
No genuine effort to slow or combat climate change can ignore Energy and Power. Trillium seeks to find the companies best-positioned to lead―and benefit from―the ongoing energy transition. Learn more about our approach to investing in Energy and Power.

Advocacy Impact Report - Second Half 2021
Trillium considers it fundamental to our mission and our fiduciary responsibility to engage with the companies that we hold in our portfolios to press for positive change that we believe will help improve ESG policies, performance, or impact. Learn more about our recent engagement activities.
November’s Report Points to Cooling Inflation…Is the Market Over-Reacting?Back >
Down Arrow