Do Markets Need Government?
When I studied and taught economics 25 years ago, the basic model of efficient markets was straightforward. Investors and businesses maximize profit, consumers seek value for money, workers search for lucrative jobs. Competitive market forces were central, although market failures were acknowledged: the maldistribution of income and “externalities” such as pollution and […]
The stock market is off to a dismal start in 2008. There has been some panic selling that we believe overstates the true underlying risks to the economy and financial markets. As discussed in our Economic and Social Outlook - January 2008 [PDF], we perceive that recession risks have risen to 50%, and are pursuing […]
From 1960 through 2006 the odds of stock returns being positive in the 4th quarter were 78% and the average return was 4.17%. This gives the 4th quarter the best odds and average returns of any quarter in the year.The strongest returns have come in 4th quarters where the economic backdrop is soft and […]
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